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(To view this page properly, please adjust monitor settings in the upper right corner)MenuEffects on Other Species & Ecosystems What are the potential impacts of global warming on us and the people and places we care about? Are those impacts severe enough to merit action on climate change? From both a practical and moral standpoint, the answer seems to be yes. Various high-level studies and reports, including The Stern Review of the economic effects of climate change and the IPCCs 2007 Second and Third Working Group Reports suggest that it is very likely in our long-term economic, health, and social interests to confront the challenge of global warming. In this essay, we will discuss a few of the reasons why we think global warming is a problem, and why we are morally responsible to confront it. Throughout, we will try to illustrate what we’re calling the potential tragedy of climate change—namely, that the people who are already suffering the most in our world from poverty, water shortage, disease, malnutrition, and other problems are by far the most vulnerable and least able to adapt to anthropogenic climate change. In other words, the poor will be hit hardest, and they can least afford to be hit.
Effects on Humans:Sea Level:Let’s start with the obvious. We’ve all heard about rising sea levels. Melting glaciers and ice sheets, along with the thermal expansion of the oceans due to higher temperatures, could raise sea levels, displacing millions of people and costing countless billions of dollars in lost land and property [1]. These impacts will almost certainly be worst in poorer countries that lack the resources to adapt to sea level rise. For instance, in the developing nation Bangladesh, a 1 meter rise in sea level would displace an estimated 15 million people, flooding nearly 12,000 square miles and causing immense loss of property and infrastructure that millions of impoverished Bangladeshis can ill-afford to replace and recover from [1]. And that’s just one country. Millions more could be displaced in India, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, and low lying coastal areas of many other countries, including the US [1].
Disease:The greatest threat of climate change is probably its potential to make existing problems worse. For instance, warmer temperatures at higher latitudes could allow tropical diseases vectors (vectors = disease carrying organisms) carrying such things as malaria and dengue fever to expand poleward from their current equatorial confines [1]. Also, decreasing water supplies (see below) could force millions of people to turn to less reliable and less sanitary sources of water, resulting in a substantial increase the incidence of water-borne disease, which already claims an estimated 3.4 million lives each year [2]. And once again, those hardest hit by these new and expanding health threats will be developing nations, which in most cases are already suffering the most from preventable diesease [2,3].
Weather:There is also good evidence that in many areas, deadly heat waves, droughts, and severe storms, including hurricanes, will occur with greater frequency and severity [1]. And unfortunately, these changes are likely to be most severe in areas already plagued by chronic droughts, food and water shortages, floods, and devastating tropical storms [1]. These impoverished nations are ill-equipped to cope with the problems they have now, let alone worse problems they may face in the future.
The Potential Tragedy of Climate Change:These are but a few examples of existing problems that could be greatly exacerbated by climate change. But they illustrate that the poorest, most underprivileged, and most vulnerable among us are likely to bear the brunt of the negative effects of global warming. And needless to say, it is these people who can least afford worsening circumstances. This is the potential tragedy of climate change. Let’s take a closer look at one prominent example of this: water availability.
Fresh Water and Climate Change:The Current Water Crisis:Some have called water the oil of the 21st century, and it’s hard to disagree. Currently, over 1.1 billion people in developing countries lack adequate water supplies (UNDP 2006). That’s pretty shocking considering that the World Health Organization (WHO) defines “adequate” as around 5-6 gallons/day, and most of those 1.1 billion water-starved people try to get by on less than 2 gallons/day for all of their water-related needs [3]. Among other things, water scarcity forces people to turn to more polluted, less reliable water supplies, which greatly increases the incidence of water borne disease. Water scarcity also threatens local crop yields, particularly for poor subsistence farmers, and keeps millions children from school and parents, particularly women, from work due to disease and the necessity to travel long distances to gather water. All told, the current water crisis claims an estimated 3.4 million lives each year [2], which is several times the number killed annually in armed conflict [4].
The Potential Effects of Climate Change:About one-sixth of the world’s population relies on the gradual release of seasonal meltwater from mountain glaciers and snowpack to supply their water needs [1]. Warming temperatures pose a serious threat to those water supplies, particularly in India, parts of China, and western South America [1]. Many other areas, including the Mediterranean basin, much of Africa, parts of Australia, parts of Asia, the Indian subcontinent, and the American west rely on seasonal rains to replenish their water supplies. Climate change has the potential to extend dry seasons and increase drought incidence in many of these already-water-deficient areas, thus making an existing problem worse, particularly for the world’s poor [1]. According to estimates from the IPCC, by 2050 global warming could lower water stress on about 20-29% of global land area (that’s a good thing!) and increase water stress on 62-76% of global land area (that’s a bad thing) [1]. Unfortunately, many of the areas projected to suffer more water stress are already arid or semi-arid, so their people can least afford further decreases in water availability [1]. For example, the IPCC predicts with high confidence that the Mediterranean Basin (i.e. southern Europe), the southwestern US/northern Mexico, parts of the Indian subcontinent, southern Africa, northeastern Brazil, the southwest coast of South America, parts of the Middle East, and parts of Australia, among other areas, could all undergo decreases in water resources due to global warming [1]. Water stress in those areas is already high and, due largely to increasing demand, increasing populations, and poor water management, is expected to worsen even without global warming. And to put it bluntly, the mere possibility of further decreases in water supplies in areas already starving for water is horrifying. 1.1 billion people already lack sufficient water to meet their basic daily necessities. Two-thirds of those people live on less than $2/day [3], which is hardly enough to adapt to further climate-related water scarcity. All in all, it is clear that climate change poses very real and substantial threats to our world, particularly to its poorest residents. After a discussion like this, it’s easy to get discouraged. But know hope: the UN Human Development Programme estimates that these problems of water scarcity and sanitation could be solved within a few short decades for as little as $10 billion/year [3]. That may seem like a lot, but it is surely a worthy investment considering that it could help eliminate over 3 million preventable deaths per year, which, again, is several times more than die in armed conflicts [4]. Be sure to drop an email, letter, or phone call to your legislators , encouraging them to support funding for water and sanitation related Millennium Development Goals. In the meantime, let’s keep those solutions in reach by helping to mitigate global warming and its potential to exacerbate the global water crisis.
Effects on Other Species and Ecosystems:So far we have focused on the impact of climate change on human health and national economies--and rightfully so; we are primarily worried about ourselves, after all. But no climate change discussion would be complete without considering the impacts of global warming on other species and ecosystems. Hopefully we have demonstrated that human health and survival are inextricably linked to the health of the resources our world provides, including food, clean water, clean air, fertile soil, and medicines. With that in mind, it’s important to remember that the health of other species and ecosystems reflects the integrity of the resources that they, and we, rely on for survival. As such, we must account for the health of those species, ecosystems, and resources in our decisions, even when their connection to our well being isn’t immediately obvious. To paraphrase the great conservationist Aldo Leopold, we should not assume that the economically valuable parts of our world will function properly without the uneconomic parts [5]. But of course, we’re not only concerned about the practical economic consequences of climate change on the environment. To again paraphrase Aldo Leopold, when we become too obsessed with our own economic health, we lose our capacity to remain healthy [5]. Much of the value of our world lies in the boundless awe that its beauty inspires. There are more beautiful places in this world than we could visit in a thousand lifetimes, and that splendor is worth preserving for ourselves, our children, and all of our descendents. As you might expect, the species and ecosystems that are already most stressed and threatened are by far the most vulnerable to global warming. And unfortunately, there are innumerable species, known and unknown, that are already highly stressed by human activities. Rapid climate change could push many of them (up to 25%, by some estimates1) out of the narrow niches in which they survive, causing marked increases in extinction rates that are estimated to be already 100- to 1000-times higher than background levels [6]. The unique habitats in which those endangered species reside, such as coral reefs, similarly could be finally pushed over the edge by rapid global warming, and many truly unique and beautiful places could be lost forever to museums, fading history books, and the wishful daydreams of our descendents. And once lost, they’re lost forever. Let’s not be the generation that deprived every future generation of the chance to scuba dive amidst vibrant coral reefs, catch a glimpse of a hawksbill turtle, or share the world with wild polar bears. Let’s be the generation that helped guarantee that the natural world we enjoy remains just as rich and awe inspiring for our descendents, as they grow up in the world we helped to build. (back to menu)Concluding Remarks:It has been said so many times that it has almost lost its poignancy. But it’s important, and it deserves careful consideration: We only have one world to pass on to future generations, and we rely completely on the integrity of its resources for our health and survival. It’s all we’ve got, so we should treat it with the utmost care if we hope to continue to thrive on this world. There are no guarantees. Our future is not written, but is determined by our choices, both good and bad. And when it comes to the health and integrity of the only resources we’ve got, it makes only makes sense to err on the side of caution. It’s quite simply irresponsible, short sighted, and selfish to play dice with the one planet that can sustain us. We have billions of neighbors, present and future, who could suffer immensely if we fail to build more sustainable nations, cities, and lifestyles. On the other hand, we also have billions of neighbors, present and future, who could benefit immensely if we work together right now to build a better future. Without exaggeration, our choices today will echo through the rest of human history. This is the only legacy we get to leave. Let’s make it one we can be proud of.
Notes and References:1) Parry, M.L. O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof et al. 2007. Technical Summary. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 23-78. (http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm) 2) World Health Organization. 2001. Water for health: taking charge. (http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/takingcharge/en/) 3) United Nations Development Programme. 2006. Human Development Report 2006—Beyond scarcity: power, poverty, and the global water crisis. (http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2006/) 4) Human Security Report: War and peace in the 21st century. 2005. Published for the Human Security Centre, University of British Columbia, Canada. Oxford University Press. (http://www.humansecurityreport.info/ ) 5) Aldo Leopold. 1949. A Sand County Almanac. 6) Extinction Rates. 2005. Edited by John Hartley Lawton and Robert McCredie May. Oxford University Press. 233pp. |
